This folder has the workings and results from the grid use model which assesses: (a) benefits from more efficient grid use (b) benefits from avoided costs of inefficient investment in batteries (c) costs of transmission investment brought forward Information on parameters used in the model are in the 'Parameter estimates' folder. The file 'Variable names.xlsx' has a list of names of variables used in the model. The main Grid use model workings and results can be found in the 'Sensitivities' folder. The models with fixed parameter values (for single simulations) in 'Grid use model/Models' replicate the set up for scenarios conducted for 2019 CBA. SCENARIOS WITH FIXED PARAMETER VALUES The grid use scenarios (model files) are in the folder 'Models'. These Python scripts read data from the 'Data' folder and write output to the 'Output' folder. In the Output folder there is a folder of results for each scenario. The models (.py files) in the ' Models' folder are: A. Central scenario (1) Central - central scenario (revised version of AoB_demand_Major_Capex) (2) Double_demand - scenario with doubling of the rate of growth in ICPs and incomes (3) Half_demand - scenario with halving of the rate of growth in ICPs and incomes (4) High_generation cost - scenario with generation costs rising more quickly (10% higher in 2030) (5) Low_generation cost - scenario with generation costs rising more slower (10% lower in 2030) (6) High_battery_cost - scenario with higher battery investment costs (7) Low_battery_cost - scenario with lower battery investment costs (8) Implementation_in_2024 - scenario with proposal implemented in 2024 (9) No_decommissioning - scenario without any decommissioning of grid-connected generation (10) Future_only - scenario without benefit based charges on historical investments (11) HVDC_only - scenario without benefit based charges on historical investments except HVDC assets B. Alternative to the proposal (1) Alternative - RCPD charge replaced with a MWh charge (2) Alternative_Double_demand - Alternative with doubling of the rate of growth in ICPs and incomes (3) Alternative_Half_demand - Alternative with halving of the rate of growth in ICPs and incomes (4) Alternative_High_generation cost - Alternative with generation costs rising more quickly (10% higher in 2030) (5) Alternative_Low_generation cost - Alternative with generation costs rising more slower (10% lower in 2030) (6) Alternative_High_battery_cost - Alternative with higher battery investment costs (7) Alternative_Low_battery_cost - Alternative with lower battery investment costs Each scenario output folder contains files that calculate (1) aggregate results ('Aggregates.py'), including present valued costs of battery investment brought forward (2) welfare gains and costs based on (i) a consumer surplus measure ('Welfare_and_costs_CS.py', the central estimate) (ii) a compensating variation measure ('Welfare_and_costs.py', a sensitivity) (3) grid-connected generators' earnings ('Earnings.py') File paths in all files need defining before running all the files. In the 'Output' folder there are files that collate results across the different scenarios and put them into the sub-folder 'Results': 'Collect_scenario_results.py', 'Create_summary_results_tables.py', 'Main_summary_results_table.py'. The file 'Results/summary_results.csv', from the 'Main_summary_results_table.py' file, contains all main model results for all scenarios. There is a copy of this file in 'CBA files for release/Summary' with chart summaries of key output variables by scenario ('Charts.xlsx'). SENSITIVITIES, FOR SIMULATIONS WITH A RANGE OF PARAMETER VALUES AND POLICY SCENARIOS Model files are in the top level of the 'Sensitivities' folder. 4 core scenarios/model files contain the models with the facility to vary input parameters/data relating to generation LRMC, generation SRMC, demand growth rates and battery costs: - Alternative.py - Central.py - Future_only.py, for analysing effects of restricting benefit-based charges to future investments - HVDC_only.py, for analysing effects of restricting benefit-based charges to future investments and HVDC assets The model files are the same as in the 'Grid use model/Models' folder but with minor modifications relating to the input parameters that vary. 4 files for looping over combinations of parameter values and running a version of the model for each combination: - Alternative_run_all.py - Central_run_all.py - Future_only_run_all.py - HVDC_only_run_all.py, Each run/sensitivity outputs 8 files for each simulation into the Output folder, with file names prefaced by the simulation name 's_[SRMC]_[LRMC]_[Demand]_[Battery]'. Alternative, Future_only, and HVDC_only simulation results are outputted to named sub-folders within the 'Sensitivities/Output/' folder. The Central scenarios output to the first level of the 'Sensitivities/Output/' folder. 4 files are used to collect the results of all simulations for each scenario into summary files: - Alternative_collect_results_all.py - Central_collect_results_all.py - Future_only_collect_results_all.py - HVDC_only_collect_results_all.py The files used to collect/collate results call 3 files that are slices of files used in the main model files for summarising generator earnings and welfare and costs. These are: - Earnings.py - Investment.py - Transmission_costs.py The files used to collect/collate results create 5 summary output files, for each scenario, that are outputted to the 'Summary' folder - with the Central scenario results in the top level and the Alternative and Future_only and HVDC_only scenarios in respective sub-folders. 4 files are used to summarise the results (output name 'summary_results.csv'): - Alternative_summary_results.py - Central_summary_results.py - Future_only_summary_results.py - HVDC_only_summary_results.py